Creating mathematical and computational models of infectious diseases like pandemic flu gives government and policy-makers a toolkit to respond to this ever-present threat.
Scientists who study predictive systems, doubt that it will be possible to predict exactly what will happen next in a disease outbreak, because the most important variables can change so much from one outbreak to another.
Aid experts at the UK Department for International Development have teamed up with the Met Office, NASA and US scientists to use for the first time a world-leading approach to accurately predict where and when cholera will spread.
Researchers examined the usefulness of Google Trends search data for analyzing the 2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia and evaluating their ability to predict its spread.
The Los Alamos National Lab has worked with Descartes Labs to come up with systems for analyzing on-the-ground conditions in Brazil to forecast dengue.
The system comprises a detection tool EpiDefend and forecasting tool EpiFX that use health and environmental data to produce a near real-time assessment of the likely presence of disease and how it might continue to spread, additionally it can be used to protect troops against biological threats and pandemics.
Researchers described outbreak characteristics and reported estimates of key transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical modelling approaches.
Researchers used district level data on cholera cases along with data on external factors, such as socioeconomic characteristics, sanitation, and access to water to identify potential disease locations.
The software framework integrates advances in statistical methods for network analysis and temporal exponential random graph models, which allows the epidemic modeling to be grounded in empirical data on the contacts and persistent partnerships that can spread infection.
Scientists are optimistic that they will be able to create an Ebola early-warning system after identifying two-year gap between clearance of forests inhabited by fruit bats and emergence of virus